Bet for Value: NCAA Football

Betting "marquee" or television games is a popularteam's defenses have proved porous. One statistic
Saturday recreational activity for squares and wisethat fell by the wayside in the Ragin' Cajuns' loss to
guys that causes radical fluctuations in the spread andTexas was that of the 418 yards allowed, the Cajuns
can turn a sure winner into a sure loser. To protect usmanaged to hold Texas' air attack to 173 yards. If the
from denting our bankroll in the first weeks of theCajuns can hold Bohnet to pedestrian numbers they'll
season we see the value in wagering on NCAAeven have a shot at winning this game.
football games that are under the radar. The more
obscure the game the better. What does it matter ifPick: ULL Ragin' Cajuns +7
you win a nickel on Eastern Michigan or on the
University of Michigan? This means you won't see Kirk,MTSU BLUE RAIDERS (-4) vs. North Texas Mean
Lee and Chris spotlighting these games on SaturdayGreen (48 O/U)
morning.
Question: How do you not bet North Texas when
In this space this college football season you won'tthey're grabbing four points against a team they have
see us recommending a lumber-play on USC, Texasnever lost against? Mean Green puts its 25 game Sun
or Iowa. In fact, the games we recommend you'll haveBelt Conference winning streak on the line as they
a hard time finding on television, unless you live withintravel to the MTSU Blue Raiders this weekend. Las
the region. So fire-up the gamecast at your favoriteVegas Sports Consultants opened the Blue Raiders as
online sports news website and flex your "refresha 5-point home favorite and set the total at 48 points,
button" finger since the scoring lag will be great andthe total has not moved while the early action had
they won't flash the score in the middle of the Notrebettors grabbing the five points for the four-time
Dame-Michigan game. Despite the setback of easilydefending Sun Belt champions. Maybe it is I, but don't
finding an accurate up-to-date score, and if you canyou see something funky in that number, something
bear betting a game you can't watch, we believe thatthat screams sucker bet? Due to the devastation
you'll get as much value, if not more, betting schools infrom Katrina North Texas' opener at LSU was
smaller conferences than you will in the biggerpostponed, while the Blue Raiders dropped their first
conferences where square money can and oftengame against the Crimson Tide 26-7. In their loss one
does kill your bet or parlay.This week, we have twothing was abundantly clear to all who watched the
games that the line has moved in our favor, despitegame, the Blue Raiders will have to figure out their
being bet up early. We see that EMU has moved fromrunning game if they hope to win this week against
five points to seven points and North Texas hasNorth Texas. Against the Crimson Tide's stingy
moved from five points down to four. Now lets takedefense MTSU managed a paltry 34 yards on 25
advantage of the steam since we see something thatcarries! However, playing against a North Texas team
the early money has not.with four new DL starters maybe the balm the Blue
Raider running game needs.
EMU EAGLES (-7) vs. ULL Ragin' Caguns (56 O/U)
We'll see if having played one game versus a team
This week we turn our attention to Yipslanti, Michigan.that has not played a game yet will make a difference.
This added game opened with the Eagles as a 5-pointKeep in mind that North Texas has lost eight straight
"chalk" but was quickly bet up to seven by gamblersseason openers. There is also the revenge factor for
looking to get on the offensively minded Eagles beforethe Blue Raiders. Recalling last year at Denton, Texas
the square money takes over Saturday morning. Sowhen these two teams went head-to-head, MTSU
far the steam is on the Eagles and that makes me likeheld a 14-0 lead over Mean Green (who were a
this play even more. The total has remained locked at3-point favorite) until the second quarter when the Blue
56 points as the odds brokers fully expect this gameRaiders gave up 24 points and suffered a tough 30-21
to be a high scoring affair. We see the number in thisroad loss. Last year's loss was MTSU's fourth
game (even at five points) inflated due to severalconsecutive loss to North Texas. Remember,
reasons. First and foremost is the 60-3 dismantling ofdefensively last year was a down year for Mean
the Ragin' Cajuns by the Texas Longhorns. WhileGreen and certainly this year is still a rebuilding year for
Texas dominated every aspect of the lopsided affair,the DBs and DLs (four new starters). These are a
one has to consider that the Ragin' Cajuns were onefew of the reasons that the Blue Raiders are the
of the only teams in Louisiana playing last week in thefavorite in this game. However, what I believe is the
aftermath of Katrina and about 20 players are fromkey factor for North Texas in this game is red-shirt
the New Orleans area. The Eagles dropped theirfreshman Daniel Meager taking over for Scott Hall.
season opener to Cincinnati 26-28, but led at the halfTrue, all Meager has to do is not lose the game by
20-14. However, it was the stellar play of the Eagleshanding the ball off to stud RB Cobbs and Thomas.
QB Matt Bohnet and the woeful display of the CajunsBut this is Meager's first start in the NCAAs and it
defense against Texas that is also likely to account forcomes on the road at Floyd Stadium. For the Blue
the large number. Against the Bearcats, Bohnet wentRaiders I see QB Clinton Marks having a better day
22-of-33 for 167 yards and a 27-yard scoring pass tothan against the Crimson Tide (12-of-18 attempts for
Eric Deslauriers in the first quarter. Bohnet accountedjust 117 yards and a 14-yard TD toss). On defense,
for 65 rushing yards on 10 carries making him theBlue Raider linebacker Jonathan Bonner returned from
Eagles leading rusher.a season ending neck injury in '04 and collected 5 1/2
tackles. Bradley Robinson had significant impact
Looking at this week's battle between the Sun Beltagainst Alabama with 8 1/2 tackles and one
and Mid-American Conferences, we see a much moreinterception.
favorable situation for the Ragin' Cajuns-despite going
on the road for their second straight week. BothAnswer: You bet against North Texas because they
teams bring identical 0-1 records and look at this gameare playing their first game of the season on the road
as a must win. No doubt about it, the Eagles arewith a red shirt freshman quarterback against a team
loaded with offensive weapons, however, their runningthat has one game under their belt and a super
game is suspect as is the case when your QB is youraccurate passer and is looking to revenge a loss.
leading rusher. On defense, the Eagles had a hard timeDespite the power running game the SBC streak ends
stopping the Bearcats as they allowed 469 yards ofat 25 for North Texas.
total offense of which 293 yards were rushing yards.
Good thing for the Eagles they'll face an aerial attackPICK: MTSU -4
by the Ragin' Cajuns as they get back their star WR
Bill Sampy after he served his one-game suspensionLet me know what you think at Doc's Sports Handy
last week. Last year Sampy led the team with 57Links:college football oddscollege football picksfree
receptions and 6 TDs. You can count on the Cajunscollege football picksDoc's Sports Handicapping
to throw the ball since their starting TB ChesterService
Johnson is nursing an injured shoulder and is1-866-238-6696Since 1971 Doc's Sports has been
questionable for the EMU game. This is the first timerecognized as one of the leaders and most trusted
that these two teams have met, and we see thenames in sports handicapping information.
teams trading points throughout this game as both